Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
