A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
